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Timor-Leste Liquified Natural Gas (TLNG) iha Beaço. Oinsá oportunidade ekonomia?

Timor-Leste Liquified Natural Gas (TLNG) iha Beaço. Oinsá oportunidade ekonomia?

Akadémiku DIT, Teodoro Mota. Imajen Tatoli/Francisco Sony

Husi: Teodoro M. Mota

 

  1. Tuir Maher (2018), hariii TLNG iha Beaço sei fó vantajen ekonomia rai-laran: vantajen primeiru mosu kedan bainhira komesa konstrusaun ba projeitu LNG, hahú mobilidade ekipamentu, apoiu lojístiku, konstrusaun pipeline ne’ebé dada husi tasi-laran to’o mai rai-maran, sei estimula suplai sasan no services hanesan enjeñária, manutensaun, fabrikasaun ki’ik, hadia sasan, soldadura espesializadu, cleaning services, transportasaun, jardineiru, seguransa, suplai kímika, negosiu tanki LNG, tug boats, uzu elektrisidade, aluga eskritóriu no akomodasaun, hote no entretenimentu, suplai hahan, suplai aifuan, suplai modo, no sst. Atividade hirak ne’e sei konsumu fundu $ billiaun dollar. Montante hirak mak ekonomia timor nia sei hetan tulun hadi’a povu nia moris. Osan ba emprezáriu lokál no osan ba empregadór timoroan rasik hodi hadia sira-nia rendimentu. Vantajen seluk hetan husi jasa-jasa durante konstrusaun projeitu no sosa sasan husi rekursu lokál (Niccolini, F., Chisari, L. A., & Maggioni, B., 2019).
  2. Pipeline gas mai TL no hariii planta LNG iha Beaço sei kria kampu serbisu ba timoroan barak bele to’o mil ba pozisaun tékniku ho non-tékniku. Esperiénsia hatudu konstrusaun planta LNG iha nasaun seluk bele absorve kampu serbisu ba ema hamutuk 12000 tantu ema husi area minarai no non-minarai. Tuir informasaun husi Archambaud (1995), pipeline gas mai TL sei kria kampu servisu bele kobre to’o 10.000 pessoas.

III. Iha estudu kazu; kampu Ichthys ne’ebé lokalija iha Tasi Timor ho 200 KM western Austrália ho poténsia rezervatoriu gas naturál 12 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) ho 500 miliaun baril mina kondensadu (MMbbls) kompania INPEX nu’udar operadór ho joint venture Tokyo Gas, Osaka Gas, Chubu Electric ho Toho Gas konstrui fundu investimentu finál (final investment decision/FID) ba projeitu LNG ho totál US $45 biliaun no hahú kontrusaun iha 2012 no kria kampu trabalho to’o 8500 pessoas (https://www.gem.wiki/Ichthys_FLNG_Terminal).

  1. Tuir Niccolini et al, (2019), Harii planta LNG iha TL sei fó vantajen taxa ba governu: vantajen fíziku ne’ebé hetan husi dezenvolvimentu projeitu LNG mak taxa. Vantajen taxa mak rendimentu ne’ebé governu TL hetan husi empregadór no emprezáriu tantu nasionál no internasionál. Taxa ne’ebé emprezáriu no empregadór sei selu ba governu, inklui atividade ekonomia ne’ebée iha posibilidade sei mosu durante périodu konstrusaun no operasaun projeitu. Konsekuénsia taxa husi atividade projeitu upstream no downstream depende kondisaun taxa ne’ebé governu TL prepara. Seraké sei kria taxa iha rai-laran?, ka sei halo regulamentu fóun kona-ba taxa ba fasilidade?, no ect.
  2. Hariii planta LNG iha TL sei garantia sustentabilidade indústria petroliferu to’o futuru jerasaun. Fasilidade planta LNG ne’ebé sei hariii iha TL la’ós deit produs ka likifika gás husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho poténsia rezervatoriu gas 10,4 to’o 19,2 tcf no mina kondensadu 474-914 milliaun barel (MMbbls) (Ainsworth et al, 2000). Maibé mós, sei produs kampu gas seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gás mak kampu gás Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf, kampu gás Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4 – 13.6 tcf, no poténsia gas em jeral iha teritoriu TL (www. anpm.tl).
  3. Harii TLNG sei sustentabiliza fundu petroleum (FP) bainhira kampu minarai Bayu Undan (BU) nia produsaun remata. Tuir informasaun husi Santos nu’udar kompania operadór iha kampu BU katak estimasaun BU nia life time to’o deit 2023 sei la ekonomis, intermu kustu operasaun boot liu kustu rekoperasaun. Kampu BU hahú produs líkidu iha 2004 no gas hahú produs 2006 (S.R. Neubecker, C.T.
    Erbrich, 2004). Kampu BU kontribui ona reseita ba nasaun purvolta $ 30 billiaun dollar. Husi reseita $ 30 biliaun, $ 15 biliaun mak uza ona ba despeza publiku depois de independénsia 2002 to’o agora no ba futuru. Nune’e FP agora dadaun rai iha banku federal US purvolta $ 17 e tal billiaun dollar. Reseita husi kampu BU 90% mak finansia OJE kada anu ba setór dezenvolvimentu hotu-hotu iha TL. Iha parte seluk, kompania operadór Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la investa iha parte downstream.

VII. Benefísiu adisionál husi harii planta LNG mak uza fasilidade refere la’ós deit likifika ka produs gas husi rai-laran, maibé mos bele importa gas husi nasaun seluk hodi halo likifikasaun molok faan ba merkadu.

VIII. Produsaun mina no gas natural bele uza hanesan kobustivel no bele konverte no deriva produtu ka sasan kímika hanesan pupuk, sepatu, roupa rai-maran, lem, triplex, tinta, plástiku, roda, bola, CD, tasu, oklu, payung, pasta, mangeira, fiu eletrisidade, fatin cas ahi ka terminal ahi, metro, pinsel, sasan halimar ba labarik kiik, supeita, kadeira, botir ka fatin mina morin, kamera dijitál, no ect. Sasan ka equipamentu sira nee hotu produs husi mina no gás natural. Signifika sei hamoris indústria no ekonomia husi área nee.

  1. Harii TLNG sei fó benefísiu profit husi rezultadu fa’an mina no gas kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu GS depende ba rezerva mina no gas, presu no demanda gas iha merkadu. Tuir kalkulasaun model ekonomia, investimentu kustu ka capital expenditure ba projeitu pipeline no TLNG ba atividade explorasaun, perfurasaun, produsaun, instalasaun pipeline, konstrusaun planta LNG no fatin prosesamentu produtu no to’o merkadoria ho totál fundu purvolta $ 10.5-12 billiaun dollar. Kompara ho projeitu Ichthys LNG iha Darwin konsumu fundu US $ 45 billiaun dollar (https://www.gem.wiki/Ichthys_FLNG_Terminal).
  2. Harii TLNG sei fó benefísiu intermu fahe produsaun iha kampu greater sunrise (GS). Profit indikator ne’ebée bain-bain uza iha indústria minarai mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompania sempre investa wainhira valór IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR) (Castle, G. R., 1979). Analizasaun project economics nu’udar sasukat ba kompania operadór, joint venture no host ckantry fóti desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Ho realijasaun fronteira marítima (FM) hamosu rejime espesiál foun iha kampu GS, maibé fó vantajen boot ba TL. Tuir akordu FM preve katak pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Austrália. Rendimentu husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba kontratór). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Austrália ho persentajen 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontratór sira. Rendimentu seluk TL sei hetan husi investimentu kustu kapitál. Kustu kapitál mak tuir kontratu hare liu ba kustu peskiza hotu ne’ebé hahú husi explorasaun jeolojia, seismiku, ka buka minarai no gás husi inisiu to’o hetan petroleum ka deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu ne’ebé iha kuandu wainhira kompania investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gás, Estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ka IC). Ne’e maneira kontratu uza hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba kontratór sira hodi halo investementu iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127% (GSSR, 2018).
  3. Harii TLNG sei fó benefísiu rejime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de Fronteira Marítima (FM). Rendimentu upstream pipeline gas mai TL rejultadu sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Austrália. Downstream exceptu karik IOC ruma hakarak investa entaun konserteja 100% mai TL. Fahe lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Austrália) no 50% seluk ba kontratór. Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei aplika mós ba produsaun produtu líkidu no gás iha kampu GS. Ne’e mak lalaok rejime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de FM asina. Ho partisipasaun TL iha kampu GS sei hetan benefísiu dobru liu tan ba reseita TL. Rendimentu ba TL iha GS sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu kapitál, domestic market obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompania sei hetan benefísiu husi profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), no instrumentus fiskal seluk (Hamburg, 2010).

XII. Dalang stratejiku atu sustentabiliza indústria petroleu iha TL mak governu via ANPM ho Timor Gap tenke servisu makas, halo diplomasia, buka parseria ho international oil company (IOC) ka kompania E&P ne’ebé iha kapasidade finanseiru hodi bele investe ba atividade explorasaun mina no gas. Atividade explorasaun mak atividade sira ne’ebée ligadu ho buka no deskobre poténsia rezerva minarai no gas iha teritoriu TL, tantu iha rai-maran (onshore) no tasi-laran (offshore). Objektivu indentifikasaun hodi asegura sustentabilidade indústria petroleu no fundu petroleum até futuru jerasaun bazea ba planu estratéjiku dezenvolvimentu 2011-2030 kona-ba dezenvolvimentu setór petrolifera (Liu, J., & Katz, B. J., 2013). Dalang atu atrai IOC halo investimentu ba setór petroleum iha TL, setór seguransa ho defeza tenke seguru, dijitaliza infórmasaun ho data, dezenu kontratu petroliferu tenke atrativu no uniku, fórmulasaun production shariing contract (PSC) entre Timor-Leste, Indonesia, Malazia, Nigeria, noruega, Austrália, no ect iha rejiaun tenke ekivalente hodi halakon gap favoretismu, dijitaliza atendementu, simplifika burokrasia no konkursu explorasaun bloku petroliferu bele via online, hodi estimula petroleum big data. God bless Timor-Leste.

XIII. Kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) konsidera kampu gás no mina kondensadu provadu ne’ebé future bele produs hodi kontinua fó reseita ba governu TL, wainhira Kampu minarai BU hapara produsaun. Komersialidade dezenvolvimentu gás iha kampu GS depende ba: rezerva gas (reserve), fólin gas (price) no demanda gas iha merkadu (buyer/market). Dadus hatudu estimasaun rezerva gas ho mina kondensadu iha kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) boot liu kompara ho kampu Bayu Undan (BU). Tuir Ainsworth R.B. et al., (2020), Kampu GS kompostu husi kampu áas rua mak: Sunrise no Traballadór ho poténsia rezervatoriu gás purvolta 10.4–19.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) no mina purvolta 474-914 milioens barrels kondensadu (MMbbls) (Ainsworth et al., 2000). Kampu GS deskobre dezde 1974 no konsidera nu’udar kampu petroleu provadu, tamba justifika ona liuhusi estudu geolojia ho jeofizika, halo ona perfurasaun explorasaun ba posu 6 (nen), halo appraisal iha 1995 ho teste posu ka well testing ba 11 (sanulu resin ida) no dadus wireline log hatudu rezultadu signifikadu tebes (Ainsworth, R. B., Stephenson, P. M., Johnson, D. A., & Seggie, R. J. (2000).

XIV. Financial option ba projetu pipeline no TLNG. Pergunta mak ne’e, fundu
investimentu husi ne’ebé?. Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolifera (FP) ne’ebé rai iha Banku Federal U.S. hela deit ona +- $ 17 billioens dollars, nunee TG sei evita no la uza FP hodi halo investimentu.
Faze tuir mai, dalang diak liu tuir pratika normativa indústria minarai, investimentu ba downstream bele halo husiTG ho nia partnership sein uza FP. Partnership mak sei investa Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC ka EPC plus Finance).

EPC plus finance signifika kompania mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ka planta LNG (Van Nuffel, F., Krekel, M., Verhagen, J., & Gilbert, T., 2020). TG ho nia parseria bele halo imprestimu (loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira sei rekopera fali osan wainhira hahú halo produsaun ba kampu GS. Kompania sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho instrumentus fiskal seluk. Ho ida nee, TG tenke servisu makas halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ka IOC, Empreza E&P ne’ebé iha kapital finansiál no kapasidade teknika diak, reputasaun no hetan rekonesementu no certifikasaun internasionál, iha experiensia hodi investa iha parte downstream. TG ho kompania EPC bele investa iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura reseita 100%. Investimentu ba kampu GS sei kompostu husi investimentu upstream, midstream no downstream. Bain-bain indústria minarai atividade hirak ne’e iha interligadu, hahú upstream, midstream to’o downstream. Aplikasaun rejime fiskal nasaun ida-idak nia diferente, depende ba kondisaun no situasaun aktual nasaun orijen nian. Iha ita-nia rai opta kontratu fahe rezultadu (production shariing contract (PSC)).

  1. Harii TLNG sei redus númeru dezempregu no redus taxa pobreza, hadi’a rendimentu povu, hasa’e reseita dupla ba FP, hasa’e rendimentu ba nasaun via royalty, impostu, reimbolsa kustu kapital 100 + 127%, hamosu efeitu multiplika (multiplier effect) boot ba ekonomia nasaun via transfer teknolojia, koñesimentu, no skills ba joven no foinsa’e sira, hamoris investimentu setór privadu, hamoris investimentu iha área turizmu, edukasaun, saúde, peskas, agrikultura, otelaria, infrastruktura, emprendedorismu, no ect. Liu-liu mós liuhusi realijasaun FM permanente fó oportunidade ba TL liuhusi fornesementu bem servisu 90% sei mai husi TL ka sujeita liuhusi TL, fornesementu equipamentu no apoiu lojístika, karantina sei liuhusi TL, nunee sei garantia independente ekonomia no sustentabilidade indústria petroliferu iha Timor-Leste tantu atividade iha tasi (offshore) no rai-maran (onshore).

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