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Alternativa reseita bainhira kampu mina bayu-undan hapara produsaun

2022/07/04 12:26:57 PM DILI

Alternativa reseita bainhira kampu mina bayu-undan hapara produsaun

Teodoro M. Mota.

Hosi:

Teodoro M. Mota

Kampu bayu-undan (BU) mak kampu petrolíferu ne’ebé eziste iha Tasi Timor lokaliza entre nasaun rua Timor-Leste ho Austrália. Distánsia hosi kampu BU mai Timor-Leste kilómetru (KM) 250 no ba Austrália KM 500. Kampu BU lokaliza iha tasi ne’ebé kle’an metru 80 ho estimasaun rezerva mina kondensadu millaun baríl (MMbbls) 550 ho rezerva gás naturál triliun kúbiku feet (Tcf) 4. Altura ne’ebá tuir planu dezenvolvimentu kampu BU sei fura posu minarai hamutuk 22, hosi ne’e posu 17 mak halo perfurasaun iha faze premeira inísiu 2003 no halo produsaun iha 2004 ho produtu tolu mak mina kondesadu, propana ho butana. Faze segunda produsaun gás naturál iha 2006, produsaun gás ne’ebé transfere tuir kadoras (pipeline) ba planta LNG iha Darwin hodi liquifika molok fa’an ba merkadu (S.R. Neubecker, C.T. Erbrich, 2004).

Tuir akordu tratadu anteriór, Austrália benefisiáriu hosi dezenvolvimentu kampu BU. Austrália unilateralmente reklama kontrolu ba kadoras BU tomak inkluindu impostu. Austrália mós unilateralmente fa’an gás helium. Gás ida-ne’ebé importante tebes ba iha área defeza ninian no prosesa iha Darwin LNG. Maibé fa’an gás helium la hetan koñesimentu ka nunka atu fahe ho reseita ba TL. Nune’e mós Austrália benefísia hosi lei karantina, ekipamentu ne’ebé tama no fornese ba kampu BU ne’e tenke liuhosi ka sujeita ba Austrália, inklui 90% fornese bens de serviço ba operasaun BU mai de’it hosi Austrália. Operadór ba kampu BU altura ne’ebá mak ConocoPhillips ho joint venture kompañia minarai Santos, INPEX, Tokyo Electric Power Company, Tokyo Gás Co., Ltd, PETROZ, Eni, Agip, ho kompañia Kni (Sims M.A. et al., 2004). Agora daudaun kompañia Santos mak sai nu’udar Operadór iha kampu BU subtitui kompañia ConocoPhillips.

Kampu BU deskoberta iha 1995 hosi Companya Phillips Petroleum (Reese et al., 1997). Kampu BU agora daudaun tama ona iha faze dezenvolvimentu ho produsaun. Tuir informasaun hosi autoridade nasionál petróleu no minerál (ANPM) ho SANTOS nu’udar kompañia Operadór katak estimasaun kampu BU nia tempu produsaun (life time production) to’o de’it fim 2022 tanba kampu BU sei la ekonómiku. Iha indústria petrolíferu kampu la ekonómiku signifika kustu operasaun ba kampu refere boot liu kompara ho kustu rekoperasaun ka profit, nune’e sedu ka tarde kompañia sei halo dezmantelamentu ba kampu refere. Antes ne’e, kampu minarai KITAN mós hapara ona produsaun iha tinan 2015 tanba la ekonómiku (Yokote et al., 2012).

Durante ne’e kampu rua KITAN ho BU mak kontribui ona reseita ba nasaun purvolta biliaun $30. Hosi reseita biliaun $30, biliaun $12 mak uza ona ba despeza públiku hahú 2005 to’o agora no ba futuru. Nune’e fundu petrolíferu (FP) agora daudaun rai iha banku federál EUA purvolta biliaun $18 (https://www.bancocentral.tl/en). Reseita hosi produsaun minarai 90% mak finánsia orsamentu jerál estadu (OJE) kada tinan ba setór dezenvolvimentu hotu-hotu iha TL. Entretantu, reseita doméstika durante ne’e kobre la to’o 10%. Nune’e kuandu levantamentu FP kada tinan foti liu 3% hosi rendimentu estimadu sustentável (RSE) signifika FP sei hotu iha 2034. Dadus atuál hatudu Inflasaun Globál Durante Fulan Lima, TL Lakon biliaun $1,6 (https://www.hatutan.com/2022/06/30/inflasaun-global-durante-fulan-lima-tl-lakon-billaun-16/).

Kampu BU halo ona produsaun dezde 2004 to’o agora 2022, signifika tempu produsaun kampu BU to’o ona tinan 18. Dadus atuál produsaun minarai kampu BU tinan 2022 hatudu iha fulan fevereiru produsaun mina millaun baríl 2,3 óleu ekivanlente (barrels of oil equivalent (MBOE)), fulan marsu produsaun mina 1,7 MBOE no fulan abríl produsaun mina 1,5 MBOE. Dadus hatudu trend produsaun kampu BU komesa tún dramátika kompara ho tinan sira antes, ne’ebé kapasidade produsaun sempre ho kuantidade boot entre 4-7 MBOE kada fulan (http://www.anpm.tl/).

Tanba saida mak kampu BU produsaun komesa tún? Tuir prátika normativa indústria minarai presiza halo well testing ka production test hodi bele deskobre problema saida mak kauza, nune’e produsaun tún. Seráke kauza hosi volume hidrokarbunetu (original oil in place (OOIP)) ne’ebé eziste iha reservoir laran mak menus, ka tanba presaun reservoir (Pr) mak komesa tún, ka index produtividade mak tún (decreasing of productivitity index/PI)), ka kauza hosi permeabilidade fatuk mak tún (low permeability), ka problema skin, problema paraffin/wax, problema rai henek (sand problem), problema slug, ka problema ekipamentu produsaun ezemplu selesaun medida tubing ne’ebé la optimu nune’e kauza lifting minarai menus, etc. Parametru hirak ne’e iha indústria petróleu konsidera nu’udar problema produsaun.  Signifika ita presiza halo intervensaun ba posu ka halo diagnóstika hodi deskobre kona-ba problema saida mak kauza nune’e halo produsaun tún (H. Gai, 2001).

Bainhira deskobre ona tipu problema, hafoin bele halo mitigasaun ho tratamentu ba posu liuhosi senáriu artificial lift ka enhanced oil recovery (EOR) halo estimulasaun ka injesaun materiál kímika ba posu laran hodi mantein presaun rezervatóriu, hasa’e no aumenta fali produsaun. Senáriu tratamentu ka intervensaun bazeia ba dadus no informasaun reservoir (rock and fluid properties, pressure, temperature, saturation, etc). Ohin loron iha teknolojia avansadu ne’ebé uza hodi asegura produsaun minarai ba tempu naruk, liuhosi monitoriza sistema produsaun ho performa reservoir (production and reservoir monitoring uza teknolojia OptoSeis ka Fiber Optic Permanent Reservoir Monitoring (PRM) (Langhammer et al., 2013). Maski nune’e haree mós ba cost effective ka analiza ekonomia.

Governu via ANPM no Timor Gap presiza mobiliza nia ema tékniku sira hodi halo estudu kle’an (deep investigation) ba kampu BU hodi deskobre fatór saida mak kauza produsaun minarai BU tún ka sei la ekonómiku. ANPM ho Timor Gap la bele hein de’it simu relatóriu hosi kompañia Operadór ho joint venture dehan BU sei dezmantela iha tempu badak, ita nu’udar rekursu na’in la bele “YES MAN ka tuir de’it”, sein estudu ruma hodi justifika ka halo komparasaun dadus ne’e loos duni ka lae? BU presiza duni halo dezmantelamentu iha tempu badak? Esperiénsia hatudu iha nasaun barak, ohin loron máfia bisnis asosia mós iha indústria minarai, tanba inkapasidade, menus rekursu ho menus teknolojia, nune’e rekursu na’in la konsege justifika, ikusmai nasaun pasrah, no mafiozu sira aproveita ita-nia ignoránsia. Dalaruma kompañia sira aumenta kustu dupla iha faze esplorasaun no kompañia sira hetan profit boot (dua kali lipat) tebes bainhira halo produsaun liu hosi cost recovery, tanba menus rekursu nune’e la konsege justifika, ikusmai kompañia sai benefisiáriu. Iha indústria minarai asosia ho high cost, high technology no high risk, tanba ne’e governu tenke kontesta mobiliza rekursu halo estudu ne’ebé kle’an hodi justifika no buka senáriu alternativu (Ruscev, M., 2007).

Enjerál iha síklu vida indústria petrolíferu fahe ba parte lima; hahú hosi faze esplorasaun, appraisal, dezenvolvimentu, produsaun ho dezmantelamentu. Objetivu atividade esplorasaun mak buka hatene no identifika ezisténsia rekursu minarai ho gás iha rai okos. Atividade ne’e dala barak involve ema jeolojista ho jeofízika, halo estudu, presiza no survey kona-ba estrutura fatuk ka fosil ne’ebé bele forma no akumula minarai ho gás. Faze esplorasaun bele konsumu tempu tinan 2-5, nune’e mós faze appraisal hodi buka hatene kuantidade volume minarai ho gás totál ne’ebé kontempla iha rezervatóriu. Faze appraisal konsumu tempu tinan 2-5. Faze dezenvolvimentu kampu minarai ho gás bele konsumu tempu tinan 3-6. Nune’e mós iha faze sistema produsaun integradu minarai ho gás bele to’o tinan 20-30. Iha indústria minarai faze produsaun konsidera síklu ne’ebé kle’ur liu, tanba atu foti rekursu minarai ho gás ne’ebé eziste iha rezervatóriu rai okos sa’e mai rai leten liuhosi meiu naturál flow, artificial lift ho hasa’e rekuperasaun minarai ho gás ka enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Faze ikus hosi indústria minarai mak dezmantelamentu ba posu bainhira produsaun hahú menus ka la ekonómiku, entaun presiza taka fali posu liuhosi halo injesaun sementi ka plug ba posu nune’e labele fó impaktu ba rai ho ambiente. Iha faze dezmantelamentu bele konsumu tempu tinan 1-3 (Denis J. et al., 2022).

Lala’ok rejime kontratu ne’ebé aplika iha kampu BU? Rejime kontratu iha kampu minarai BU kontinua de’it nia rejime uluk iha tempu Indonézia no Austrália, bainhira 2002 Timor Leste (TL) restaura independénsia. TL mak na’in ba rekursu substitui Indonézia. Nune’e kontratu sira uluk konverte hosi Timor Gap mai iha JPDA (joint petroleum development área), depois tratadu Tasi Timor 2002 asina. Rejime kontratu kampu BU molok definisaun fronteira marítima permanente. Rendimentu fahe ba parte rua:

  1. Royalty katak depois fa’an mina no gás, osan fahe kedas molok deduksaun ba kustu. Ne’e mak hanaran royalty ka first tranche petroleum (FTP). Royalty 10%, hosi 10% sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Austrália ho persentajen 90:10. 90% mai TL no 10% ba Austrália tuir akordu Tasi Timor.
  2. Lukru iha BU mai hosi produtu rua mak liquidu no gás. Liquidu fahe 50%:50%, katak 50% ba governu no 50% seluk ba kontratór. Governu 50% sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Austrália ho persentajen 90%:10%. Enkuantu lukru hosi fa’an Gás fahe 60%:40%. Tuir tratadu tasi timor 40% ba governu TL no Austrália. Hosi 40% fahe tutan 90% ba TL no 10% ba Austrália. Enkuantu 60% ba kontratór sira. Reseita hosi kampu BU mai hosi lukru, royalty, no impostu (web:http://web.anpm.tl/).

Rejime kontratu kampu BU depois definisaun fronteira marítima (FM) permanente iha 06 marsu 2018 fó benefísiu boot ba TL, tanba kampu minarai bayu-undan ho poténsia kampu petrolíferu seluk ne’ebé lokaliza iha Tasi Timor 100% tama hotu mai iha área TL no timor mak na’in ba rekursu, nune’e reseita hosi kampu hirak ne’e 100% mai TL. Ho realizasaun FM tuir kontratu sei posibiliza empregadór ka fornesementu bens de serviço iha kampu BU sei mai hosi timoroan, tantu kona-ba lei karantina, supply ekipamentu, apoiu lojístiku bele mai hosi TL. Signifika ho realizasaun FM, kontratu anteriór balu sei autentikamente la funsiona, no sei konverta kontratu hirak ne’e tuir akordu foun ne’ebé governu TL ho Austrália konkorda ona, nune’e mós nafatin garantia kondisaun ekivalente para labele prejudika kompañia Operadór no joint venture.

Kampu BU 100% na’in mak TL signifika governu via ANPM tenke regulariza kona-ba pontu mobilizasaun (mobilization point), signifika traballadór-sira, fornesementu bens de serviço 100% mai hosi TL ka sujeita liu hosi TL, la’ós mobilization point iha fali Darwin. Kuandu mobilization point nafatin iha Darwin entaun Austrália mak sai benefisiáriu ekonomia. Loloos ne’e fornesementu ekipamentu no apoiu lojístika, karantina 100% liuhosi TL hodi estimula ita-nia ekonomia no garantia sirkulasaun osan iha rai laran, taxa, kria kampu serbisu, transfer skills no teknolojia ba joven-sira, hamosu enterpreneurship, hamosu kompetividade, hamoris setór edukasaun, saúde, agrikultura, peska, turizmu, otelaria no etc (Niccolini, F., Chisari, L. A., & Maggioni, B., 2019).

Kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) nu’udar alternativu reseita. Kampu GS konsidera kampu minarai provadu ne’ebé futuru bele produs hodi kontinua fó reseita ba governu TL, bainhira Kampu BU hapara produsaun. Komersialidade dezenvolvimentu gás iha kampu GS depende ba: rezerva gás (reserve), folin gás (price) no demanda gás iha merkadu (buyer/market). Dadus hatudu estimasaun rezerva gás ho mina kondensadu iha kampu Greater Sunrise (GS) boot liu kompara ho kampu Bayu-undan (BU). Tuir Ainsworth R.B. et al., (2020), Kampu GS kompostu hosi kampu gás rua mak: Sunrise no Troubador ho poténsia rezervatóriu gás purvolta 10.4–19.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) no mina purvolta millaun baríl 474-914 kondensadu (MMbbls) (Ainsworth et al., 2000). Kampu GS deskobre dezde 1974 no konsidera nu’udar kampu petróleu pravadu, tanba justifika ona liuhosi estudu jeolojia ho jeofízika, halo ona perfurasaun esplorasaun ba posu 6 (neen), halo appraisal iha 1995 ho teste posu ka well testing ba 11 (sanulu resin ida) no dadus wireline log hatudu rezultadu signifikadu tebes (Ainsworth, R. B., Stephenson, P. M., Johnson, D. A., & Seggie, R. J. (2000).

Operadór ba kampu GS mak Woodside (33.44%), Osaka Gás (10%) ho Timor Gap (56.56%). Distánsia hosi kampu GS mai Timor-Leste 150 kilometru (KM) no ba Austrália 450 KM. Molok hahú dezenvolve kampu GS, presiza diskute kle’an kona-ba planu dezenvolvimentu kampu (field development plan), no hatuur klaru regulamentu no prosedimentu legál ne’ebé opera, regula no kontempla ona iha akordu FM (Fronteira Maritima), PMC (Petroleum Mining Code), IPMC (Interim Petroleum Mining Code), Ancillary regulation, Production Sharing Contract (PSC) hodi asegura win-win solution ba empreza no governu. Tuir rejime espesiál GS karik pipeline mai TL reseita sei fahe 70% mai TL no 30% ba Austrália. Enkuantu kuandu pipeline ba Austrália reseita sei fahe 80% mai TL no 20% ba Austrália. Nune’e nasaun rua iha direitu hodi foti desizaun kona-ba futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, liuhosi governance board ne’ebé nomeadu hosi nasaun rua.

Iha estudu kazu; kampu Ichthys ne’ebé lokalija iha Tasi Timor ho 200 KM weste Austrália ho poténsia rezervatóriu gás naturál 12 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) ho miliaun baríl 500 mina kondensadu (MMbbls) kompañia INPEX nu’udar Operadór ho joint venture Tokyo Gás, Osaka Gás, Chubu Electric ho Toho Gás konstrui fundu investimentu finál (finál investment decision/FID) ba projetu LNG ho totál biliaun $34 iha Austrália iha loron 13 Janeiru 2012 (Serceau, A., 2012).

Entretantu, kampu GS ne’ebé eziste gás naturál purvolta 10.4–19.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) no mina purvolta millaun baríl 474-914 kondensadu (MMbbls). Tuir informasaun hosi national oil company (NOC) investimentu ba kampu GS hahú faze upstream to’o downstream ho kustu purvolta biliaun $10.5 to’o biliaun $12. Signifika investimentu projetu LNG iha kampu GS nia kustu ki’ik liu kompara ho projetu Ichthys LNG iha Austrália. Iha parte seluk, kompañia Operadór Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la investe iha parte downstream. Nune’e TL via Timor Gap mak sei investe fundu 100% ba parte downstream. Perguntas mak ne’e, fundu investimentu hosi ne’ebé? Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolífera (FP) ne’ebé rai iha Banku Federál U.S. hela de’it ona +- biliaun $18, nune’e TG sei evita no la uza FP hodi halo investimentu.

Faze tuirmai, dalan di’akliu tuir prátika normativa indústria minarai, investimentu ba downstream bele halo hosi TG ho nia partnership sein uza fundu petróleu. Partnership mak sei investe Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC ka EPC plus Finance). EPC plus finance signifika kompañia mak sei investe osan no konstrui projetu intermu investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ka planta LNG (Van Nuffel, F., Krekel, M., Verhagen, J., & Gilbert, T., 2020). TG ho nia parseria bele halo impréstimu (loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira sei rekopera fali osan bainhira hahú halo produsaun ba kampu GS. Kompañia sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho instrumentus fiskál seluk. Ho ida-ne’e, TG tenke serbisu maka’as halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ka IOC, Empreza E&P ne’ebé iha kapitál finansiál no kapasidade téknika di’ak, reputasaun no hetan rekoñesimentu no sertifikasaun internasionál, iha esperiénsia hodi investe iha parte downstream. TG ho kompañia EPC bele investe iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura reseita 100%.

Investimentu ba kampu GS sei kompostu hosi investimentu upstream, midstream no downstream. Babain indústria minarai atividade hirak ne’e iha interligadu, hahú upstream, midstream to’o downstream. Aplikasaun rejime fiskál nasaun idak-idak diferente, depende ba kondisaun no situasaun atuál nasaun orijin nian. Iha ita-nia rai opta kontratu fahe rezultadu (production sharing contract (PSC)). FM ne’ebé ratifika ona hosi Parlamentu nasaun TL ho Austrália sei posibiliza hodi diskute kle’an liután sobre futuru planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS entermu partilla reseita, aplikasaun taxa, no etc ne’ebé preve iha akordu PSC. Importante mak garantia kondisaun ekivalente entre kompañia ho governu hodi atrai International Oil Company (IOC) halo investimentu.

Iha parte seluk Austrália, TL ho kompañia minarai konkorda ona katak produsaun liquidu ka mina sei fa’an kedas iha plataforma leten. Nune’e rezultadu hosi fa’an liquidu sei fahe reseita kedas entre kompañia ho governu. Reseita hosi upstream mak sei partilla 70%:30%. Partilla intermu de upstream (produsaun mina iha plata forma no fa’an kedas rezultadu sei fahe 60%:40%. Hosi ne’e 60% ba kontratór no 40% seluk ba governu. Governu fahe ba parte rua: Timor-Leste sei hetan 70% no Austrália sei simu 30%). Ne’e mak senáriu fahe 30%:70% preve ona iha rejime foun ne’ebé sei aplika iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS.

Kona-ba financing option. Kuandu fundu minarai boot, dezenvolvimentu upstream, midstream, ho TLNG bele finánsia hosi fundu minarai. Maibé iha investimentu boot hanesan minarai, maski kompañia iha osan maibé sira uza loan. Tanba saa? Tanba sira uza prinsípiu time value of money, katak osan ida agora folin boot liu osan ida aban bainrua. Nune’e kompañia sira dala barak la uza osan rasik, no sira uza osan impréstimu (loan) ne’ebé sura hotu ona selu fila osan inan ho funan iha OPEX, ne’ebé liga ona ba NPV, IRR ho analiza sensitividade. Tanba ne’e financing option hodi dezenvolve upstream, midstream ho downstream la presiza uza fundu minarai. Maibé kompañia Operadór sira bele uza osan impréstimu no sei hetan fali sira nian osan via cost recovery ho insentiva kustu seluk (Castle, G. R., 1979).

Harii fasilidade TLNG, Refinaria, Supply base, Pipeline, nu’udar penunjang (suporta) atu responde ba sustentabilidade indústria petróleu iha TL, estimula no garantia kontinuidade esplorasaun no exploitasaun ba setór petrolífera agora no futuru. Aleinde ne’e, fasilidades refere la’ós de’it responde ba dezenvolvimentu kampu gás GS, maibé mós sei tulun hodi responde ba dezenvolvimentu kampu gás seluk ne’ebé identifikadu ona ho rezervatóriu gás hanesan kampu gás Kelp Deep 13 TCF, Chuditch 0.75 Tcf, sst, lokaliza iha ex-JPDA (http://www.anpm.tl/) no poténsia kampu seluk ne’ebé lokaliza iha tasi timor no iha rai maran. Poténsia kampu petróleu seluk ne’ebé mak deskoberta ona mak hanesan kampu Jahal, Kuda Tasi, Squilla no Krill lokaliza iha Block 11-106, opera hosi kompañia Eni, INPEX no TIMOR GAP. Tuir kontratu fahe produsaun ka production sharing contract (PSC) iha área Esklusiva (Eni, Galp and KOGAS halo hela esplorasaun). Iha área eskluziva, 85% sei mamuk, katak seidauk iha lisensa de esplorasaun. Enkuantu iha Timor Gap onshore block (bloku rai maran); Block A (PSC TL-OT-17-08), B, and C (PSC TL-OT-17-09). Ita iha poténsia Bloku 15 ne’ebé futuru bele halo esplorasaun. Bloku 9 (sia) iha tasi laran ka offshore no bloku 6 (nen) iha rai maran ka onshore (http://www.anpm.tl/).

Fasilidade petrolíferu ne’ebé harii iha TL sei estimula hodi esplora poténsia petróleu ne’ebé lokaliza iha rai-maran mak: Aimaulin Seep, Horba Seep, Holmesel Seep, Lour Seep, Aisaleuk Seep, Atalele Seep, Aliambata Seep no Badulobo Seep. Fatin sira-ne’e konsidera poténsia ka prospetu ba petróleu ka konsidera nu’udar gás naturál ne’ebé suli hosi rai okos sai mai rai leten ka babain hanaran gás seep. Fatin sira-ne’e identifika liuhosi SURVEI AÉREO GEOFÍSIKA, ne’ebé kompostu hosi estudu Aero Magnetic and Radiometric; atu deteta fatuk nia Magnetizmu no Radioactive, Aero Gravity: atu deteta densidade hosi fatuk no Survei Aéreo Geofísika detalladu liu (Magneto Telluric no Electromagnetic (EM)) (https://timorgap.com/databases/website.nsf/vwall/home).

Finansiamentu ba projetu TLNG, Refinaria, Supply base, Pipeline, no etc, sei la finánsia diretamente hosi governu TL mesak no sei la foti diretamente FP hodi finánsia tanba ita-nia osan FP +- biliaun $18 la sufisiente hodi funding ba projetu. Iha kontratu PSC laran fó dalan capital expenditure (CAPEX) no operating expenditure (OPEX) bele finánsia hosi kompañia Operadór no join venture ka International Oil Company (IOC) ka fundu independente seluk depende ba negosiasaun kontratu. Bainhira ita halo ona produsaun mina no gás, hahú fa’an ona ba merkadu, foin kompañia no governu sei rekopera fali osan (cost recovery) plus ho net cash flow ka profit. Kompañia Operadór ho joint venture sei hetan benefísiu hosi IRR, no instrumentu fiskál seluk (Mudford, B., & Stegemeier, D., 2003). Governu sei benefísia hosi first tranch petroleum (FTP), Tax, benefísiu direta no indireta ka benefísiu hosi spin off.

Tanba ne’e, atu asegura sustentabilidade reseita hosi setór petrolífera mak dalan di’ak liu TL tenke iha maioria asaun 56,56% ba GS hodi haforsa TL nia pozisaun nune’e asegura pipeline mai TL. Ho partisipasaun TL iha GS sei reforsa liután TL nia pozisaun para foti desizaun no garantia harii TLNG. Ne’e pasu importante hodi estimula independénsia ekonomia tanba kampu GS sei haksubik hela billiaun dolar amerikanu, presiza investimentu boot nune’e bele lori benefísiu dupla ba nasaun. Prezensa TLNG, Pipeline, Refinaria, Supply base, no etc nu’udar baze ba motór dezenvolvimentu ekonomia rai-laran, sei fó impaktu boot ba setór turizmu no otelaria, infrastrutura, agrikultura, saúde, edukasaun no peska (Maher, M., 2018).

Futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu GS maioria TL sei benefisiáriu entermu fahe rezultadu ka rendimentu, royalty, impostu, reimbolsa kustu kapitál 100% + 127%, fornesementu bens de serviço 90% sei mai hosi TL ka sujeita liuhosi TL, fornesementu ekipamentu no apoiu lojístika, karantina sei liu hosi TL, nune’e sei hamosu multiplier effect iha setór hotu, sei estimula TL nia ekonomia no sirkulasaun osan iha rai-laran, kria kampu serbisu, transferénsia skill no teknolojia (Niccolini, F., Chisari, L. A., & Maggioni, B., 2019).

Benefísiu sósiu-ekonómiku ne’ebé TL sei hetan mak kriasaun kampu traballu hahú hosi konstrusaun indústria bele absorve empregadu 3500 diretu no indiretu (Serceau, A., 2012). Nune’e mós, oportunidade ba negósiu (Business Opportunity) mak hanesan; Supply Goods & services, Fabrication, Hospitality, Etc. Iha parte seluk bainhira indústria ne’e la’o sei hamosu Supply of Goods & Services mak hanesan: Manutensaun, Enjinaria, Fabrikasaun ki’ik, hadi’a sasán, soldadura espesiazadu, cleaning services, transportasaun, jardineiru, servisu guarda/seguransa, supply kímika, business tanker LNG, Tug boats, uzu eletrisidade, aluga eskritóriu & akomodasaun, otél & entertainamentu, supply hahán, supply aifuan, supply  modo no etc. Buat sira-ne’e hotu sei kria empregu indiretu rihun barak, no estimula atividade ekonomia iha Beaço, Viqueque no Timor laran tomak liuhosi selu taxa/impostu no kontribui ba kreximentu gross domestic product (GDP).

Bainhira pipeline mai TL posibilidade boot sei estimula Indústria SERVICES ne’ebé kompostu hosi Supply Base Management (Manpower, Supporting facilities, Waste management, Repair and maintenance), Port Services (Berthing space booking, Vessel clearance, Customs & immigration no Crew change), Vessel Supply (Fuel, Water, Food (meat, fruits & vegetables, no provisions seluk), Cargo Handling at Quay (Stevedoring, Heavy equipment, Trucking no Liquid mud transfer), Cargo Handling at Base (Labor, Heavy equipment no Trucking), Marine Services (Rig Agency, Rig/Vessel Lay-up, Tug Boats, Vessel Chartering, AHTS & PSVs, Rig Tow no Crew Change), Facility Rent & Management (Warehouse /Yard Management, Bulk Plant Área, Port-a-camp, Office Space, Equipment Rental, Cargo Handling, Security Services, Waste Management no Fuel/Water Supply), Supply Chain Services (International Transportation, Customs Clearance, Heavy Lift Transportation, Materiál Management, Dangerous Goods Handling, Hand-Carry & Hotshot, Air/Sea Chartering no Helicopter Operations), Oilfield Support Services (Engineering, Fabrications small to big, CCU & Basket Rental, Equipment Rental, Manpower Supply, Inspection Services, Procurement Services, Oil Spill Response, Maintenance Services, Pipe Repair & Threading, Seismic Surveys, Drilling Rigs Stations, Drilling Muds no Bunkering), Supply Services, 24/7 operation, Cargo loading/unloading, Cargo lifters, Fuel Supply, Fuel Storage, Inspection Areas, Rigging & Slinging, Pipe racking, fuel tanks and warehouses, Oil rigs parking for supply/maintenance, Welding, Fabrication, Waste Management, Drilling Muds & Silos, Chemical Warehouse, Repairs and Maintenance (DOI: https://doi.org/10.2118/207328-MS).

Atividade sira iha leten naturalmente sei estimula dezenvolvimentu agrikultura, peska, no atividade ekonomia ba setór privadu, hosi eskala ki’ik to médiu (‘small to medium enterprises’). Produsaun alimentár, aifuan, no nesesidade diária ba ema sira ne’ebé serbisu iha indústria ne’e no sei fó insentiva ita-nia toos na’in sira atubele prodúz ho kuantidade no kualidade aas liután.

Ezemplu projetu Bayu-undan perfíl rendimentu ba Timor-Leste. Iha Inísiu hahú atu dezenvolve Kampu Bayu-undan tuir estimasaun ekonomia: Governu Timor-Leste sei hetan de’it biliaun $2.0 lukru maihosi: royalty, lukru no impostu. Maibé realidade hatudu katak Kampu Bayu-undan fó ona totál rendimentu: biliaun $20,501 tinan 2017. Totál rendimentu ba TL hosi inísiu to’o finde 2017 no projesaun to’o kontratu hotu: biliaun $22.487 iha tinan 2022-2023. Iha diferensa boot hosi kalkulasaun inísiu tanba: presu mina ne’ebé uluk uza hodi halo kálkulu ne’e $24/baríl realidade hatudu presu sa’e to’o $120 iha tinan 2011-2012 no rezerva ne’ebé uluk uza hodi halo kálkulu mak 2.1 tcf más to’o ikus sa’e ba 3.4 tcf.

Kampu Greater Sunrise bele fó reseita $30 to’o biliaun $56 ba Timor-Leste. Retornu ekonómiku uza senáriu konservativu ka base case, TIMOR GAP nu’udar joint contract ho share 56.56% bele hetan reseita totál biliaun $14  no Governu Timor Leste totál biliaun $18. Reseita ne’e maihosi rendimentu royalty, lukru no impostu ho totál retornu biliaun $32 to’o biliaun $56 bainhira folin minarai sa’e. Reseita ne’e bele halo kalkulasaun uza modelu ekonomia (economic modelling) ho rezerva Greater Sunrise. Tuir estudu posibilidade dezenvolvimentu kampu GS sei hahú halo perfurasaun ba posu 18 iha tasi laran iha faze primeiru hodi halo produsaun (Stephenson et at., 2000).

Timor-Leste ninia poténsia totál petroleum initial in place (PIIP) pur volta biliaun baríl 12.6 – 45 óleu ekivalente (BOE). Kompañia Timor Gap (TG) halo ona estimasaun katak rekursu ne’e bele rekuperável, mak $6.3 BOE biliaun $378. Se uza kustu pur baríl bele atinje to’o biliaun $35, entaun presiza gastu ba atividade oin-oin iha enjeñaria, fabrikasaun, “services” hahú hosi fábrika ki’ik to’o boot, konstrusaun, operasaun, manutensaun, esplorasaun no sst, bele konsume fundu to’o valór biliaun $220. Hosi dadus refere fó serteza boot ba TL hodi dezenvolve setór petrolíferu hodi sustentabiliza fundu petrolíferu (http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1531899.html).

Dalan estratéjiku atu sustentabiliza indústria petróleu iha TL mak governu via ANPM ho Timor Gap tenke serbisu maka’as, halo diplomasia, buka parseria ho international oil company (IOC) ka kompañia E&P ne’ebé iha kapasidade finanseiru hodi bele investe ba atividade esplorasaun mina no gás. Atividade esplorasaun mak atividade sira ne’ebé ligadu ho buka no deskobre poténsia rezerva minarai no gás iha territóriu TL, tantu iha rai-maran (onshore) no tasi laran (offshore). Objetivu identifikasaun hodi asegura sustentabilidade indústria petróleu no fundu petróleu to’o futuru jerasaun bazeia ba planu estratéjiku dezenvolvimentu 2011-2030 kona-ba dezenvolvimentu setór petrolífera (Liu, J., & Katz, B. J., 2013). Dalan atu atrai IOC halo investimentu ba setór petróleu iha TL, setór seguransa ho defeza tenke seguru, dijitaliza informasaun ho data, dezeñu kontratu petrolíferu tenke atrativu no úniku, formulasaun production sharing contract (PSC) entre Timor-Leste, Indonézia, Malázia, Nigeria, Noruega, Austrália, no etc iha rejiaun tenke ekivalente hodi halakon gap favoretizmu, dijitaliza atendementu, simplifika burokrasia no konkursu esplorasaun bloku petrolíferu bele via online, hodi estimula petroleum big data. God bless Timor-Leste.

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